BRIEFING F1: AZERBAIJAN GP

With the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, Formula 1 closes the European chapter and heads into the long stretch of races across Asia and the Americas that will carry us through to the end of the season. Beyond the often questionable charm of some non-European venues, this shift represents a concrete opportunity for Ferrari to give some meaning to a season that risks ending without any significant results.

Baku, in particular, offers characteristics that could help the Prancing Horse: endless straights, heavy braking zones, and few fast corners. On paper, a favorable scenario—especially since Leclerc has always shown a special feeling for this track. But caution is needed, because those long full-throttle sections expose one of Ferrari’s chronic weaknesses: ride-height management, which forces painful compromises between reliability and performance. Add to that the tire question, with softer compounds this year likely to lead to higher degradation.

Verstappen’s Red Bull, on the other hand, could feel perfectly at home: the Azerbaijani street circuit, light on high-downforce corners and rich in fast sections, seems tailor-made for the RB’s efficiency. Monza already gave a clear signal in that direction, and with the Dutchman’s talent, the most predictable variable remains his ability to make the difference.

McLaren, by contrast, could risk losing some ground. Without high-downforce corners to showcase its aerodynamic efficiency, the MCL39 might look less incisive. Not exactly turning into a pumpkin, but no longer the lethal weapon we’ve seen elsewhere either. On top of that, there’s the internal tension between Norris and Piastri: in Baku, excess aggression doesn’t forgive, and mistakes tend to cost more than usual.

Mercedes remains a wild card. The car has no consistent strengths: it’s decent under traction and braking, but struggles on the straights, making it impossible to know which trait will prevail here. Complicating matters further is the Antonelli case: the young talent continues to struggle, and even Toto Wolff—until now his biggest supporter—is beginning to show signs of impatience.

The rest of the grid, as often happens, will live on opportunities—ready to capitalize on the mistakes of the frontrunners or seize one of those wild cards that Baku, by its unpredictable nature, always seems to throw up.

We resume with Piastri 31 points ahead of Norris, a gap that could have been even wider without the Monza team order. Still, little changes: the sense is that Norris still lacks the composure needed to truly fight for the title. Maybe Baku will be the track that reshuffles the cards—or the one that puts an end to the internal battle once and for all. Either way, it will be a key turning point.

© Simone Marchetti Cavalieri

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