The Formula 1 World Championship resumes after a two-week break and heads to Baku for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, the first of two consecutive races on street circuits (with Singapore scheduled the following week). These tracks are known for their unique and unconventional characteristics.
The Constructors' Championship is still very much open, while the Drivers' Championship, surprisingly, might come back into play. The results of the next two races will be crucial, and Red Bull needs to deliver a strong response to reverse the recent negative trend.
The RB20, due to both internal factors (such as issues with team principal Horner) and external factors (like FIA directives on asymmetric braking that have impacted performance), is no longer the benchmark vehicle. Depending on the circuit and the competition, Red Bull could even fall back, becoming the third or fourth force in the race.
We saw this in Monza, where Verstappen struggled throughout the weekend, only managing to secure a sixth-place finish, which could have been even worse. The difficulty in fine-tuning the RB20 is creating tension, with Verstappen growing increasingly frustrated. At the moment, McLaren and Norris don’t seem fully prepared to take advantage of this situation, but that could change with time.
In Baku, it will be essential for Red Bull to regain competitiveness, even though the track, characterized by long "stop and go" sections, doesn't seem to be among the most favorable for them. On the other hand, Ferrari could benefit, as they are particularly comfortable on this type of circuit. The smooth asphalt in Baku could also help Ferrari better manage porpoising, a problem that has affected the team on other occasions.
Leclerc and Sainz have good chances of competing, provided they secure a strong qualifying position. They could play a key role in the fight for the titles and become a crucial ally for Red Bull.
McLaren will need to be cautious, as they lost an almost certain victory in Monza due to internal rivalry between their drivers. Crucial points that could weigh heavily at the end of the season, especially if Red Bull continues to show weaknesses. Woking is preparing to be competitive in Baku as well, but it might be useful to set stricter rules to avoid similar situations between the drivers.
Mercedes could also enter the fight for victory, creating further problems for Red Bull. Despite the disappointment in Monza, the team believes they have a good chance in Baku, as long as the W15 doesn’t prove too difficult to set up.
The Baku circuit offers opportunities for all teams, including those in the mid or lower rankings, like Aston Martin and Williams, who might aim to score points. Qualifying will be crucial for the outcome of the Grand Prix, and those willing to take more risks could gain an advantage. If Ferrari shows competitiveness, Leclerc will be one of the main candidates for pole, although in the past, he has paid dearly for trying to push his limits on the Azerbaijani track.
The track, with its long straights alternating with slow corners, favors cars with great traction, braking stability, and efficient power unit management, characteristics that could benefit Ferrari. Conversely, Red Bull might struggle, especially due to lower top speed compared to their rivals.
Finally, there's news of Adrian Newey's move to Aston Martin starting in 2025. The English designer has chosen to return to his home country, signing a particularly lucrative contract. It remains to be seen whether he will be able to turn Aston Martin into a title-contending team. It will also be interesting to see whether Alonso or Lance Stroll will have the best chance of fighting for the title, should success come.
© Simone Marchetti
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